KYIV — As Ukraine braces for the uncertain future with a new U.S. president, officials and business leaders are devising strategies to persuade Donald Trump that a robust Ukraine aligns with his political ambitions. They express cautious optimism that he may act more swiftly and decisively than President Joe Biden. Kyiv aims to demonstrate to Trump that Ukraine is not merely a recipient of aid but represents a valuable economic and geostrategic opportunity that will ultimately benefit and safeguard U.S. interests. By adopting Trump’s transactional diplomatic style—offering American firms lucrative business prospects—Ukraine hopes the new president will help counter Russia's advances.
Despite Trump's past comments and those of many in his inner circle suggesting the conflict is costing U.S. taxpayers too much and should be resolved quickly, Ukrainian officials maintain hope that he can facilitate a resolution to the war that Kyiv considers fair. This rhetoric has raised concerns that Trump might abruptly withdraw U.S. military support for Ukraine and pressure it into conceding territory to Russia. However, officials express their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's gradual aid distribution. Many Ukrainians are choosing to overlook Trump’s recent negative remarks and instead focus on his record as the first U.S. president to directly supply lethal arms to Ukraine.
During Trump’s initial term, Ukraine received Javelin missiles—the shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons that the Obama administration had long withheld—which played a crucial role in preventing Russian forces from capturing the capital in early 2022. Trump later highlighted these sales, particularly the second batch following his controversial call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which became a focal point of his impeachment proceedings, claiming he was tougher on Russian President Vladimir Putin than the Democrats.
“The first military aid to Ukraine came from a president who despises Ukraine,” remarked Dmytro Kuleba, who served as Ukraine’s foreign minister until September. Despite Trump’s unpredictability, he suggested that a new presidency could bring about beneficial changes for Ukraine.
To garner Trump’s backing this time, Kyiv must create scenarios where supporting Ukraine enhances Trump's image, Kuleba noted. “If his goal is to project strength and assert that ‘I’m better than Biden, that Biden failed and I ended [the war],’ then sacrificing Ukraine is not the path forward.” Ukrainians viewed the Biden administration's cautious approach to aid as detrimental to U.S. credibility as a global security guarantor. They also grew frustrated that while Biden publicly supported Ukraine, his administration often adopted a conservative stance regarding critical weaponry decisions due to concerns about Russian retaliation.
In recent weeks, Ukrainians have begun advocating for a new era in U.S.-Ukraine relations centered around “peace through strength.” They hope this message will resonate with Trump more effectively than it did with Biden.
“That, you dominate.”
“I can hardly picture Trump collaborating with someone like Putin,” he remarked.
However, significant changes have occurred since Trump endorsed the delivery of Javelins to Ukraine. The president-elect is now accompanied by a largely new team — including Vice President-elect JD Vance, who voted against U.S. assistance to Ukraine during his time in the Senate, and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who has aided Ukraine with Starlink internet but has also ridiculed Zelensky and questioned the U.S. involvement in the conflict. A full-scale war has been ongoing in Ukraine for almost three years, with Kyiv seeking NATO membership — a military alliance Trump has threatened to withdraw from — and Putin, reacting to Biden’s recent decisions to ease some military constraints on Ukraine, has increased his threats to escalate and broaden the war.
According to observers, much of Ukraine’s influence over Trump’s decisions regarding future actions will depend on Zelensky’s personal ability to persuade him.
“A lot will rest on Zelensky’s shoulders,” stated Scott Cullinane, head of government affairs for Razom, a U.S.-based nonprofit supporting Ukraine. “He will need to assume the role of a personal intermediary with Trump. … At this moment, I’m uncertain if anyone else can fulfill what is needed except for him.” Zelensky seems to have already accepted this reality. He spoke with Trump by phone right after his election victory earlier this month — a discussion that followed a meeting in September where he shared his “victory plan” with Trump, which includes a section on Ukraine’s natural resources.
Ukraine is presenting its reserves as lucrative business prospects for Americans. It highlights its natural gas storage — the largest in Europe — and the availability of minerals like lithium, which could be transformative for the microchip and electric vehicle industries — particularly appealing to Musk and his electric car enterprise.
“Control over lithium equates to control over the future economy,” explained Volodymyr Vasiuk, an expert in Ukrainian industry who advises Ukraine’s parliament on economic issues. He noted that it is more beneficial for the Western world if these resources remain under the control of a “relatively friendly nation like Ukraine.” Vasiuk suggested that Ukraine should leverage Trump’s business-oriented approach to foreign relations and position itself to negotiate deals with U.S. companies for mining its reserves, especially lithium. The largest lithium reserve is situated in the central region of the country, away from current conflict zones.
Overall, Ukraine possesses enough lithium to manufacture 15 million electric vehicle batteries, although one site is already under Russian control and another is near the front lines, according to Vasiuk.
“The Ukrainian gas market is the most profitable globally,” stated Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of state-owned NaftoGaz, who plans to travel to the United States soon to engage with American companies. “I’m confident that U.S. firms have a promising future in Ukraine now — not later.”
Chernyshov noted that the Trump administration comprises individuals with “greater business acumen.” “I think it’s fantastic they might take that into account. We are discussing millions of dollars in contracts immediately,” he remarked.
The message has already resonated with some U.S. Republicans. Speaking on Fox News last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), who has made numerous visits to Ukraine during the conflict, characterized Ukraine as possessing trillions of dollars in rare earth minerals. “Ukraine is prepared to strike a deal with us, not the Russians,” he asserted. “Thus, it is in our interest to ensure Russia does not take control of the area.”
Anastacia Galouchka contributed to this report.
Ukrainian opposition lawmaker Volodymyr Ariev anticipates that Trump will closely scrutinize every dollar spent on American aid to Ukraine—not necessarily out of opposition but as part of his broader conflict with the Biden administration. “If Trump aims to make America great again, it is in his direct interest to prevent Ukraine from being overtaken by Russia, as this could mark a critical turning point for the United States’ global image as a security overseer,” he stated.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, emphasized that it will be Kyiv’s responsibility to articulate to Trump the political rationale behind supporting Ukraine. “We need to provide representatives of the Trump administration, including Mr. Trump himself, with comprehensive information about the logic of the process,” he said. “Investing a small amount now in supporting Ukraine—through weapons, financial aid, and so forth—will effectively neutralize Russia’s military capabilities.”